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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who runs and defends the country's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's power moves, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd