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Only two days before the NYC mayoral election, political analyst Michael Lange made a bold forecast – going beyond who would win overall, but precinct by precinct. The analyst, an expert in elections who grew up in the city, devoted over a decade in left-leaning activism and emerged as a kind of local celebrity recently for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He published his extremely precise forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate was victorious although failed to predict the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. He has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from Park Slope to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal outrank the New York Times” in audience and the majority of electors leaned toward Cuomo, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Patterns and Surprises

What was your election night?

I had to do that because they were dropping around 200,000 ballots into the system every few minutes! I felt somewhat anxious at the beginning: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came large groups of ballots that came in after that and his lead went from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, there was a world where election day went kind of poorly for Mamdani, in which the opponent would have essentially doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. However Mamdani added 500,000 supporters to his initial base, and this was critical why he succeeded. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the primary.

Expanding Support

Where did Mamdani get additional support from?

He built the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, youthful, tenants and individuals squeezed by affordability. He gained significantly with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, relative to the earlier election. Additionally he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He created the alliance that the left always wanted to build: multiracial, youthful, tenants and people struggling with costs

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is this significant?

It is a genuine phenomenon, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Muslims. Voters in ethnic enclaves that went for the former president last year backed the progressive this year. But I wouldn’t say he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Effects

A major development of the night was the sky-high participation. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Turnout was significantly higher than I had expected. I figured it could go over 2 million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a lot of darn voters. Existed a decent anti-Mamdani block, energized, but his supporters was equally driven, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Right now you would say he’s likely to get over 50%. He has just over 50% but remain around 200K ballots uncounted as of Wednesday morning. So it’s not it’s definitive, but I think probable, and I wish he achieves it because then none can claim Sliwa was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the Republican candidate, was another surprise. His support plummeted.

He lost any district in any borough. Not even Tottenville in the borough, similar to an highly conservative neighborhood. That really was unexpected. Cuomo held very white areas, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added all of these Republicans on the island who had a high participation. I think occurred a lot of strategic balloting by the Republicans. They were doing it before Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide if the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

The “Commie Corridor”

What about your much mentioned “commie corridor” – did backing for the candidate overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think existed a little dilution of the commie corridor in certain places like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners supported the independent. So there was some opposition. However no, largely the leftist base is a key factor why Zohran won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the vote there was coverage on if the candidate was making inroads with the community. Is there any suggestion that he did?

Exist areas with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Upper East Side, his position on Israel definitely mattered in those places. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored the independent. Plus, you have newcomers from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, they were strongly Cuomo. So it’s unclear if there were major surprises here, but Mamdani retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city represents in politics? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that key political leaders from the left come from a few areas in the boroughs. I believe that there will be additional examples – candidates will come from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

But I think that each urban center in the US could develop their own commie corridor. Cities are the centers of leftwing power in America – since youth reside there, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities we face.