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Volodymyr Zelenskyy, although leading his country amidst a war, is simultaneously pursuing a vision for peace: achieving EU membership for Ukraine swiftly.

Ukraine's tireless leader is increasing pressure on European Union governments to accelerate the protracted membership process. He frames the national struggle of Ukrainians as a battle "to secure the nation's destiny, the prospects for the country within the European Union."

This dream of tens of millions of Ukrainians obtaining EU citizenship is, in theory, shared by the union itself. Nowadays, hardly any gathering in the EU capital ends without the country's membership being referred to as a "strategic imperative."

This language frames the nation's survival and Europe's long-term safety as two sides of the equation. However, for years after the year 2004 "enlargement" that admitted 10 ex- Soviet countries, there was no appetite for additional members, especially not the large eastern nation. The Russian president's military invasion altered all that – just a short time of the illegal 2022 full-scale invasion, Kyiv had submitted an application for, and received, "official candidate" standing. A year, European governments took the momentous step to open membership talks with a nation at war, although with no a set timeframe. Adjacent the Republic of Moldova, the former Soviet republic feared to be next in Putin's crosshairs, jumped to the top of the queue together with its neighbor.

Last week, the European Commission released its official review of the progress of 10 applicant countries, and placed both nations among the four frontrunners, together with two Balkan states. Kaja Kallas said it was a achievable target that this quartet might each be in the European Union by 2030.

Ukraine's positive evaluation is undeniably impressive. Enemy missile attacks are devastating the nation's energy grid nightly, its exchequer is nearly empty and millions of its citizens are refugees, metaphorically camped out elsewhere of Europe. Its diplomats are often literally in shelters. But, in EU headquarters, representatives are optimistic about the huge modernization effort being undertaken in Kyiv even with ongoing worries about graft. Details of an reported scandal at the nation's state power company are still emerging. Nevertheless, they claim, negotiations could be finalized by late 2028. Negotiations with tiny the Balkan states could be concluded by 2026 and the following year, in that order.

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A Reality Check

There is a sobering contrast: the European Commission does not decide who joins. The 27 current EU governments do, and they must vote by consensus through each stage. Furthermore, currently, the EU's resident leader Viktor Orbán is obstructing the official opening of talks with Kyiv. And because Moldova is bundled with Ukraine, it too is stuck.

Attention are on the polls in Hungary in April, could defeat Orbán. Yet some member states with domestic electoral concerns may be hiding using the Hungarian veto. With far-right parties surging in major European nations and already in power in other countries, the broader environment for Ukraine's acceptance is daunting.

Analysts point out a discrepancy between verbal commitments and actual desires. "I am not convinced that a lot of countries in the Union really desire the nation to be a full member, for various causes," says one close observer of the process. "Yet it is a tragedy: because the European Union would win the lottery by admitting this nation."

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Identifying the Roadblocks?

A strategic argument for admitting the country may be increasingly pressing in light of the Kremlin's "hybrid war" on the continent, but considering its scale and intricacy, so are the political and financial obstacles. Once negotiations are completed, ratification by each of the twenty-seven countries – several mandate referendums – is legally required for any new accession. And while public support for the nation's admission is certainly high in Nordic states, 41% throughout the EU oppose it.

Far-right political groups are increasing their influence and some of them are vehemently anti-European and anti-enlargement. With the French far-right leader's far-right National Rally potentially headed for government in France in 2027, a referendum in the country on Ukraine's membership would be a difficult battle. Even among pro-expansion countries, there is trepidation about the financial implications involved, considering the nation's relative poverty and immense reconstruction requirements. A contentious debate over whether to seize €140bn of frozen Moscow's funds to bail out the nation before it runs out in March is still simmering. Poland, Hungary and Slovakia, meanwhile, worry that their farming sectors will be harmed if Ukraine, a major farming nation and competitor, gains eligibility for agricultural support payments.

Expansion in general, it is worried, could weaken rather than consolidating the Union, until institutional reforms are beforehand implemented to prevent paralysis in a club of over thirty nations. But that could take a long time.

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Winning Support and Security Concerns

Officials in Brussels may have innovative workarounds to Orbán's blockade such as "front-loading", where negotiations could begin unofficially until Hungary's veto is lifted.

Discussions are underway, too, of including strict new regulatory safeguards and long probationary phases into new accession agreements to appease sceptics. Nobody desires new members that on paper appear to uphold the rule of law, but who turn out to be "Trojan horses" to the union.

Public relations efforts and "narratives" to win the support of citizens in both the current member states and the candidate nations are planned. It is evident, though, that creating expectations and then leaving many people in limbo indefinitely carries dangers. As the Moldova's president, the pro-European president, who in September overcame Kremlin interference to achieve a impressive pro-EU electoral win, warned last week: "If we don't succeed in the coming years … then what will be the message to the citizens?"

Zelenskyy used an in-depth discussion to highlight the risks of Moscow initiating conflict against a different European nation before the current conflict ends. He also stressed Ukraine's strength at a perilous juncture, and his deep affection for his compatriots. "I believe that