The toppling and alleged seizure by invading US forces of Venezuela's socialist president will send a shiver of dread and alarm across the globe. This power grab is unlawful, without justification, and destabilizing for the region and the world. It overturns international norms, ignores sovereign territorial rights, and risks creating an anarchic situation within the country.
It is chaos made policy. But this is the world we now live in – the universe as defined by the US President.
A Remarkable and Perilous Declaration of Unfettered US Power
The direct attack on Venezuela marks an remarkable, hazardous declaration of unfettered US power and arrives the same week that the President menaced armed attacks against another unpopular anti-western regime: that of Iran. It follows months of increasing US military, economic and political pressure on Maduro, including lethal maritime attacks on boats of alleged drug traffickers.
Trump claims to be acting to stop illicit drugs entering the US via Venezuela and to halt an alleged influx of “criminal element” migrants. In an repetition of the American incursion into Iraq in 2003, he is also charged with desiring Venezuela’s huge petroleum and natural gas reserves – doubts strengthened by repeated, illegal US seizures of Venezuelan petroleum carriers.
But Trump’s chief motivations appear to be individual hostility aimed at Maduro, and a wish to resurrect the 19th-century Monroe doctrine by creating a American zone of control and dominance across the Western Hemisphere.
Hemispheric Alarm and Worldwide Consequences
Regional leaders, including Colombia’s president, who has conflicted with Trump in recent months, greeted the coup with outrage and alarm; not least, perhaps, because they worry they also could become victims of Washington’s newly aggressive dominance. Cuba’s leftwing government has special reason for worry. It depends significantly on Venezuela’s regime for low-cost fuel and backing in politics and economics.
The US secretary of state has made no secret of his desire for regime change in Havana. In Panama, too, anxiety levels will be running high. Trump has previously threatened armed intervention there, over control of the Panama Canal. Indeed, the alleged apprehension of Maduro recalls the 1989 US invasion of Panama and the toppling and arrest of its then dictator.
Autocratic, undemocratic governments globally will be carefully watching Trump’s next steps, as will Washington’s democratic allies. Iran denounced the overthrow. It has good reason to be fearful. But Russia’s president may not be totally displeased by the removal of his Venezuelan ally.
A Dangerous Precedent for International Disputes
Trump’s unjustified turn to force is not entirely dissimilar from moves during the invasion of Ukraine. Both have illegally attacked a neighbouring country and attempted to oust its leadership. For China’s leader, whose forces were last week conducting military exercises against the “breakaway factions” of Taiwan, Trump has just established a benchmark he may one day gladly follow.
Trump’s coup is of significant worry to Britain, the EU and democratic Western nations. They ought to, and have to, unequivocally condemn it. It openly confronts the rules and principles of the global system they cherish. The US has yet again disregarded the United Nations and traditional methods of resolving disputes between nations. And it is acting with apparently scant regard for the subsequent events in Venezuela.
Uncertain Aftermath and Risk of Disorder
The Caracas government has been decapitated, but other senior members of the regime seem to remain at their posts. They are urging resistance and, possibly, reprisals against the US. There are unverified accounts of civilian casualties. If a power vacuum forms, public order could collapse, igniting internal conflict or a possible military coup. And it is unclear whether the most recent American armed intervention has ended, or may intensify more.
The notion that banished dissident figures will swiftly return and that full democracy will now be restored is naive. The coming days will be critical. And it’s all down to Trump.
The Illusion of a Peacemaker
Trump’s imprudent move should at last bury his perpetually deceptive self-portrayal as a “world peacemaker”. It’s high time that leaders in Europe publicly recognise him for who he is – a international provocateur of war, a universal menace.
Each time he stumbles clumsily into areas of dispute, setting deadlines, issuing ultimatums, choosing sides and monetising misery, the pursuit of fair and enduring peace is hindered.
No surprise peace remains distant. And strangely, even while posing as a neutral peace broker and one who avoids intervention, Trump concurrently conducts warfare on the world. The US conducted unprecedented levels of aerial bombardments in the Middle East and Africa last year, data indicates.
A Legacy in Blood
Since returning to office a year ago, peace-loving Trump has bombed Yemen, negligently causing the deaths of numerous civilians after loosening rules of engagement; bombed Nigeria, to counter-productive effect; struck locations in Somalia, Iraq and Syria; and targeted Iranian sites, where he mendaciously exaggerated the effectiveness of American attacks on nuclear facilities. He even will not exclude bombing Greenland, a sovereign territory of a Nato ally.
What’s going on in the President's mind? A benign interpretation is that in issues of conflict and tranquility, he has no conception what he is doing – no strategy, no clue – and invents strategy as he goes, based on how he feels.
The sinister interpretation says he is fully aware what he’s at, that more and worse is to come. Like previous second-term presidents who exhausted options at home, Trump finds the world stage provides more opportunities for the application of authority and self-importance. He is building a legacy through violence.
Trump’s irresponsible, dangerously erratic conduct is getting measurably worse. His Venezuela “triumph” may embolden him to attempt more and bigger, unhinged outrages. He struts and preens, cries havoc! and lets slip the dogs of war.