Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
