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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your squad in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest turnaround receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or just the most shocking shock.

Yet the current field is distinctly different. The group of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions fading and recent underperformers ascending collectively. In an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a wild and entertaining season, he's facing multiple other elite coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to create big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a typical season!

The area where his case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still