Day-to-Day Killings in the nation Fall 37% Under President Sheinbaum, Per Government Statistics

The mean number of per-day killings each month in the country has fallen by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, according to recent official statistics. However, security specialists have cautioned that murder figures might not point to better national safety.

Significant Reduction in Per-Day Averages

There was an average of almost 55 homicides a day in the month of November as opposed to almost 87 when the President assumed the leadership in the previous September. This announcement was provided by the head of the nation's federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in killings that we’ve had in these months is extremely significant,” the President said, adding that in November the smallest figure of murders were recorded for any single November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Violent cartel rivalries, combined with the administration's highly military efforts to take on the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers soar in recent years. The rate reached a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's official data office.

That meant Mexico a murder figure more than four times higher than the United States. However, murders have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her public safety strategy for an ostensibly steeper decline in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the President declared: “We have a plan, there is tracking of the plan, and we have specific monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The plan works. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The central elements of the President's safety plan include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Greater cooperation between various authorities.

Expert Skepticism and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety analysts warned that focusing solely on murder numbers to draw a conclusion of pacification was misleading. This is especially true in light of the uptick in different criminal activities such as abductions.

“That would be very good information if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just concentrate on the homicide numbers and think: ‘Well then, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's cartels. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

Per the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall dropped by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the same period the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not useful for assessing the reality of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the ability or the inclination to correctly recognize and categorize remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month means of daily homicides was also concerning because it may hide periods when there were especially high levels of killings.

“Relying on the per-day average makes surges of violence unseen,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

An area where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its safety plan is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 individuals were detained between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact offenses, per official figures. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s highly in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Anger

But notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico continues to be grappling with severe violence, with several regions in the midst of cartel-related violence. Recently there was a notable murder of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the past 12 months.

Weeks after, many thousands of protesters protested in Mexico City and throughout the nation to show their frustration at corruption and drug violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a way to construct a story of safety. Politically it’s extremely successful, socially it’s highly debatable,” the analyst concluded.