This rhetoric and optics from Russian leader Vladimir Putin's recent visit to India projected a strong bilateral relationship. Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomed Putin at the airport with a hug, and the statesmen took a ride together, echoing a familiar political gesture. In his remarks, Modi called Putin as "a dear friend" and labeled the Indo-Russian bond as a "lodestar", founded on "mutual respect and profound trust" that had "weathered the test of time". This was Putin's tenth trip to India during his quarter-century rule and his 20th meeting with Modi since the latter took the premiership in 2014.
A Divide Between Symbolism and Substance
Yet, a significant divide persists between the symbolism and the actual content of this partnership. While Putin pledged "continuous fuel supplies" to India, the country's refiners are in fact buying a reduced amount of Russian oil in the face of international pressure. The two nations signed numerous agreements covering mobility, health, food security, maritime cooperation, and educational exchanges. However, anticipated announcements on major military contracts failed to happen. India has abstained from any substantial defence agreements with Russia since the 2022's invasion of Ukraine, a trend driven by delays in deliveries of equipment and spare parts as Moscow prioritizes its own defence requirements.
A Relationship With Diminished Strategic Influence
These developments indicates that the Indo-Russian dynamic no longer carries the same geopolitical weight it previously did. During the Cold War, India maintained special trade terms and economic entry to the USSR and its satellite states. This privileged alliance peaked in 1971 with a Pact of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, concluded before a conflict with Pakistan where Islamabad was supported by the US and China. While both nations have sought to maintain a semblance of this special bond through a "unique and elevated" alliance declared in 2010, the reality is that their interaction lacks the same significance as New Delhi has significantly strengthened relations with the Western world.
Broadening and Underlying Tensions
New Delhi is not expected to cut its crucial links with Moscow. But, as Western pressure increases on India to curtail its purchases of Russian oil, both nations are seeking to diversify the partnership into other sectors. During Putin's trip, they unveiled an economic cooperation program extending until 2030, aiming to make their relations "broader, balanced and sustainable". This involves enhancing market access for Indian goods to rectify a trade imbalance strongly tilted in Russia's favour. Collaboration between the two covers multiple key strategic fields – from space and atomic energy to defence and food security.
Sentimental Affinity and Seen Reliability
At an ideological level, a high degree of affinity with Russia remains, particularly among senior generations of policymakers in New Delhi who recall Moscow's pivotal support during the Cold War. This has translated into a certain level of understanding for the Russian viewpoint on the Ukraine war. During ongoing tensions between India and the US, in which American leaders have made critical comments about the Indian economy, many in India perceive Russia as a increasingly dependable ally.
This key difficulty, naturally, is the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The extensive declaration released during Putin's visit made no reference to Ukraine, despite it paradoxically referred to the partnership as an "anchor of global peace and stability". Despite Modi's often-repeated statement that "this is not the era of war", New Delhi's overt steps regarding the conflict have been limited.
Squaring the Circle: New Delhi's Foreign Policy Tightrope
This situation highlights the inherent contradictions in India's foreign policy. The nation is poised to conclude a trade deal with the EU, following a comparable agreement with the UK earlier year. On the sidelines, India, Australia, and Canada announced a three-way technology initiative. There are ten times more Indian students in the US than in Russia, although efforts are being made to boost cultural contacts between India and Russia.
How will India square this circle? New Delhi will be banking that ongoing peace negotiations will bear fruit, resulting in a cessation of fighting and the elimination of a key thorn in its ties with the Western bloc. But, should a peace deal is achieved, if it fails of a "just peace" that respects Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, critical examination of the Indo-Russian alliance will certainly persist in Western governments.