Each time the wind flows northwest from Belarus, Lithuania prepares for disruptions.
That is when enormous inflatables are dispatched across the border, with boxes of illicit tobacco dangling beneath.
Over the last two and a half months, this unauthorized aerial activity has caused Lithuania's main airport into closure 15 times, stranding thousands of travellers.
On a single instance, the airspace was shut down entirely for a lengthy 11 hours.
However, the government are adamant they are dealing with something much more aggressive than mere smugglers.
They state the balloons have been "weaponised" in an example of covert aggression by Belarus, Moscow's key partner.
Government Action
The Lithuanian government has instituted an official alert.
While balloons have been employed by smugglers in the past, their numbers escalated rapidly this October.
"Naturally it started as criminal enterprise, but we've seen more than once how Belarus uses criminal networks to impact adjacent states," a senior official stated.
The official suggested the balloons are launched from locations that help them best aim at Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.
"If the goal was to conduct a smuggling operation, you'd do it in the forests or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister argued.
Instead, there is a belief that the balloons represent a form of coercive pressure on Europe's eastern flank.
"This is viewed as a pressure tool: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really touching the military and security field."
Border Vigilance
Now, each evening, border units deploy in the frontier area.
The balloons are most frequent under cover of darkness.
Units set up temporary roadblocks on isolated lanes, checking drivers' documents and examining vehicles in search of anyone involved to the smuggling networks.
The balloons travel too high to make shooting them down a safe or economic option.
Consequently, the government has offered a €1m prize to any firm that can figure out how to safely stop them.
In the meantime, teams use military radar to track the balloons and attempt to apprehend smugglers at the drop zones.
Soon, new legal penalties for acts of sabotage should also serve as a deterrent.
Strategic Motives
The border itself is now marked by a tall metal fence, with security wire and concrete blocks.
This enhanced fortification is a visible indicator of how Lithuania now views its neighbour as adversarial.
Not far away, the long-time ruler of Belarus has dismissed all talk of hybrid warfare as "baseless".
He recently blamed "bandit" smugglers, saying they were simply seeking a profit and finding innovative ways to overcome the new security fence.
Lithuania does not buy that, partly due to past precedent.
In 2021, migrants were assisted to cross into Lithuania and Poland in significant quantities, provoking a manufactured emergency.
"The current pattern involves a series of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, precisely targeted at the airport," explained a crisis management official.
"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it swiftly. But they don't. That implies it benefits them."
The prevailing theory is that Belarus is attempting to pressure its way into reducing sanctions.
"They want to draw diplomatic focus and force us to change our policies towards Belarus," is how one minister interprets the dramatic increase of balloons.
The EU does not recognise the Belarusian leader as president following disputed elections in 2020 and a subsequent repression.
Sanctions were levied then and tightened later when Belarus aided Russia's war of Ukraine.
"{First, they want to end the international isolation of the regime and secondly, of course, the sanctions," the minister stated.
Consequences for Travel
Currently, travellers and airlines are having to adapt.
"This is an unprecedented situation for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.
One airline has already relocated its charter flights, and another has cut its evening service.
Revenue losses for all affected businesses are projected to reach €2m by year's end.
"There are direct financial costs, but the greater concern is if passengers start to lose trust in air travel," he admitted.
Already, travellers check a new webpage for wind forecasts and balloon probability before booking flights.
"It's stressful, it makes me a little bit nervous. I'd just like to get home as planned," one passenger said.
"I am convinced this is a hybrid attack on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really amusing to fly those balloons and then laugh at us."
Her words suggest that another aim of such covert tactics – creating division – is also working, and perhaps more difficult to counter.
"They're basically testing the limits of the alliance: looking at how we respond to these kinds of things," said another citizen.
"And we can't even handle simple balloons. We're not even equipped for the basic stuff."